We caught up with the excellent Ghostpoet at The Big Chill Festival in beautiful Eastnor Deer Park. It was momentous, and split into two momentous parts: the first comprised a Serious Interview, and the second was a quiz on Coventry (where Ghostpoet recorded his debut album). See how much he knew (and if he won the prize – yes there was a prize!) just here. Look, here:

Here is a full review of The Big Chill , if you’re into that sort of thing.

Muso’s Guide is working with Vodafone VIP across festival season, be it live-blogging, video-interviewing artists, Tweeting (we’re at @musosguide) or reviewing weekends in handy snapshot form.

Vodafone VIP is part of the VIP programme for customers, and Muso’s Guide is taking on official music blogger status at some of the summer’s hottest festivals. There are currently competitions running to win tickets to Latitude, T in the Park and Wireless, with more to come over the summer.

The Vodafone VIP experience extends further too – there’s a Vodafone VIP area across fashion, festivals and Formula 1 over the summer, a viewing platform giving customers shelter and brilliant views, a recharging truck capable of charging 2,000 phones at once and selected apps allowing festival-goers to see what’s on and where, locate their tent via GPS and plan schedules for their weekends.

Visit http://www.vodafone.co.uk/vip to find out more.

It’s only a few days until 2011 Barclaycard Mercury Prize, now entering a third decade of awards and with Mystic Meg’s News of The World hotline not being picked up we call upon Mitchell Stirling to gaze into a crystal ball or hack into the judges phones to find out who come Tuesday could be celebrating too.

The sure things.

Adele - 21

Adele – 21

Nominated in 2008 for her debut when everyone was deciding if there was room for both Adele and Duffy that year, there’s no such issue this time round, even we had to check Wikipedia to confirm there actually was a second Duffy album that was eligible. It won’t be on the list. Adele’s mega-selling 21 will be though. While we struggle to see the award going to it, it’s hardly needing the sales boost – it sold a three millionth copy at the start of this month and will surely pass James Blunt’s Back To Bedlam to become the biggest seller of the last 15 years. (More than The Spice Girls, Robbie Williams, Dido, The Corrs or anyone has with one album since (What’s The Story) Morning Glory?) She does not really need the coverage and the £20,000 cheque we would argue.

Anna Calvi – Anna Calvi

Anna Calvi – Anna Calvi

Releasing her self-titled album early in the year so fresh after a BBC Sound of 2011 nomination (and not forgetting being tipped here in May last year) has seen her garner plenty of critical praise in the vacuum that can be January album releases. With the likes of BBC Radio, Uncut, NME, Mojo, Pitchfork, Rough Trade, Brian Eno, Nick Cave and others behind its spiky intensity, it’s also got the obvious leg-up of being a debut (seven out of last nine winners were first albums) alongside her growing profile after her well received Glastonbury set last month.

James Blake - James Blake

James Blake – James Blake

By now a more polarising album than we’d anticipated it being, with fierce defenders and attackers lambasting and praising it not following the work Blake was doing in 2009 and early 2010. Regardless, it’s an album that people have been talking about the past six months and its inclusion would be bound to raise the ire of the haters again. In not sounding as ground-breaking or other-worldly as say Burial’s Untrue, it puts itself in a stronger position to win as a more middle-ground, BBC Radio 2, dinner-party stable.

Katy B - On A Mission

Katy B – On A Mission

On A Mission ticks a few boxes for nomination in that it is a slightly more pop look at a the margins of the dubstep / R&B divide, is it slightly too popular to do well? (#2 in the album charts, three top ten singles) We’d wager no, as that never held some far more popular acts off the list, even in recent years; Adele, Radiohead, Amy Winehouse, Paul Weller and others who are far more household names. We’d also suggest her as one who could win the whole thing; certainly odds of 16/1 looked quite appealing. It would also be nice to see a more positive role model for young flame-haired girls on the front of the Guardian for a change.

PJ Harvey - Let England Shake

PJ Harvey – Let England Shake

For us, this is without doubt one of the best albums of the year and it should be nailed on to be shortlisted and as one of the favourites. However Stories from The City, Stories From The Sea won in 2001 and although this is as strong (stronger even?) as that album, the gong has never been given to a previous winner. In fact in 2008 when Portishead’s outstanding Third was talked as a potential winner it didn’t even make the cut, there previous win surely counting against them. We’ll stick with calling Let England Shake a sure thing as some ex-winners (Arctic, Dizzee Rascal) have made it but we won’t be completely shocked if it doesn’t make it either.

Wild Beasts - Smother

Wild Beasts – Smother

The band that brought us Muso’s Guide’s 2009 Album of the year have made another strong contender for the Mercury Prize and while a lot the albums mentioned so far have had impressive chart positions, due to Smother’s #17 peak it is the kind of record that would benefit from the exposure of the nomination. Missing it off would certainly seem a perverse thing to do given the amount of love that has been poured out toward it from devotees as well as newcomers to the band’s sound.

Other contenders.

As always we’ll throw up some albums we would love to see on the list personally, even if some of them might be wishful thinking. First up would be The Phantom Band’s The Wants which while not the kind of record that is quick in revealing its knotty charms, its sprawling ambition is exactly what the shortlist should be celebrating. Likewise Esben & The Witch’s cavernous sound deserves more ears to appreciate it. On a quieter note, ex-Pipette Rose Elinor Dougall’s charming solo debut and Smoke Fairies’ chilly, haunted folk have hopefully made the judges’ ears prick up.

Moving to some previously nominated acts who have albums up for potential selection; not many people are seeing a nomination for Radiohead as their The King of Limbs seems curiously unloved and taken for granted. We do think that it would be bizarre for them to win for that, having not won with some of the most important releases of the last twenty years. Domino don’t seem to be pushing previous winners Arctic Monkeys that much and I’m sure they aren’t all that fussed having appeared before and of course winning in 2006. Likewise Elbow’s Build A Rocket Boys could easily not make it if there’s no desire to have two previous winners on the list (assuming PJ Harvey is). British Sea Power’s Valhalla Dancehall doesn’t seem to be as popular as their shortlisted album from 2008 and we’d be surprised to see them make the twelve this time.

It’s much more likely that a further nomination will go to the very recent released album from The Horrors (released on the deadline day) as well as Friendly Fires and serial nominee Eliza Carthy. Less likely are nods for Guillemots, The Go! Team, Glasvegas and The Streets, acts that have made stronger albums in the past and which have previously made the list.

After a barren couple of years the token urban/ R&B nod(s) section is quite competitive. Ghostpoet and Tinie Tempah seem the most likely but don’t rule out the likes of Dels too. Though we feel James Blake is a shoe-in, Jamie Woon, Mt. Kimbie, Darkstar or even SBTRKT from the dubstep world could get a look in. Golden Panda, Magnetic Man and Zomby we feel are a little more unlikely.

In the “old bloke that’s still got it, never going to win” slot there’s no Paul Weller, Morrissey, Robert Wyatt or anything else that Uncut and Mojo readers will know inside out to make up that demographic so thoughts have settled on Kate Bush. However, given the re-worked nature of her Director’s Cut, a nomination seems a non starter so that probably puts Brian Eno’s Small Craft on a Milk Sea (or even the more recent Drums Between the Bells) in the driver’s seat.

The remaining indie slots will likely divide into one each from pools we like to call BBC3 indie (Beady Eye, Noah and The Whale, The Vaccines, Frankie and The Heart Strings) and BBC4 indie (Everything Everything, Metronomy, The Joy Formidable, Stricken City, The Chapman Family, Yuck, Pete and The Pirates, Let’s Wrestle and Wu Lyf) one pool more broad/popular, the other more niche/unknown. Pop wise, Chase & Status and Jessie J have been talked up but it’s more likely Hurts will be the only further bone to the poptimist crowd that makes it as Adele and Katy B are very likely to be included and the days where The Spice Girls and Take That made the list seem to be long gone.

There’s no Marling or Mumford to take an obvious folk slot so despite the strong albums from Admiral Fallow, Alessi’s Ark, Bellowhead, Emmy The Great, The Unthanks and King Crimson we’ll go with The Leisure Society. The tricky to predict jazz slot could go to Kit Downes Trio or Led Bib again or Karios 4tet. We think it’ll be Sebastian Rochford and Pamelia Kurstin though.

One thing we can say with absolute confidence. No Gorillaz on the list.

Predictions:

Adele, Anna Calvi, PJ Harvey, James Blake, Katy B, Wild Beasts, The Horrors, Metronomy, Tinie Tempah, Sebastian Rochford and Pamelia, Ghostpoet and The Leisure Society.

Half a dozen to cover our tracks; Brian Eno, Yuck, The Vaccines, SBTRKT, Eliza Carthy and Friendly Fires.

We’ve also created a Mercury playlist over on Spotify – go here for an hour of tracks from previous winners to get you in the mood before the announcement tomorrow at 11.30am.

Barclaycard Mercury Prize 2010

Hello! So, I’m here to oversee the announcement of the list of people in the running for the annual British music awards it’s OK to like and argue over and then dismiss when the ‘wrong’ person wins. It’s like a music Sports Day, with all the runners and riders in short shorts, ill-fitting vests and trainers your mum put in the washing machine especially for the occasion. You can have a read of who we think might be in the running and then obviously keep reading my rambles to find out who is on the shortlist. WARNING: I can’t spell and I’ve had very little sleep in the past few days, so pray for me.

2009′s winner Speech Debelle, as you’ll all know, went on to have hit after hit, selling millions of albums, touring the world and winning award after award…only she didn’t. She actually crashed into the charts at number 65, played a few barely attended gigs and then quit her label. This is what smug people like me call, “the curse of the Mercury Prize”. Let’s also not forget that previous winners include M People and Gomez, so all bets are off!

I can exclusively reveal that I know who one of the nominees is/are! I probably shouldn’t tell anyone yet as this place is full of security and I worry I’ll be whisked off to some bunker and forced to listen to said artist over and over and over again. Trust me, this is not a good thing. When this band/artist are announced later, I will make sure and make it clear I knew all along they were on the list, such is the power trip I’m starting right now.

Not right now. Right now I’m stuck in reception waiting to be let in…

10:52 - OK, I’m in. Well, I’m in a massive white room. The room has lights as bright as the sun, chairs, those big hoardings they make people stand in front of when they’re being interviewed and people with cameras and head-sets on. There are so many wires and technical looking stuff that lying around and it’s so bright white I’m imagining this is what a Dixons version of God’s waiting room looks like.

11:00 - There are LOADS of people here now! Including someone I know!! We’re laughing and giggling at the excitement of it all. It feels like something might be happening soon. Like, something might actually happen and not just seem like it might happen but probably won’t. There’s A LOT of ‘anging about going on in here.

11:06 – Erm, two things: Firstly, not sure why this is all coming out as one long paragrah. Secondly, I think I’m sat in the wrong bit.

11:12 - OK, so I’m in the basement now. This is a good thing apparently. This is where the magic happens. Unfortunately, I’m sat near a light that appears to be burning my bag…one sec.

11:15 – They’re playing Florence. I think this means her ubiquity has allowed her a nomination this year too, which seems only fair given last year’s debacle. I’m standing up to write this and I’m aware of  my arm going dead.

11:20 – Lord, it’s Kasabian now. Also, there is so much smoke in this basement that I actually think this building is modelled on polar opposites; heaven is upstairs, hell is downstairs and right now, we’re in Hell. In a good way. I mean, i’m grateful to be here, but my lungs are feeling heavy and I swear I just coughed up smoke.

11:22 – I’m sat on the floor now, which is good for my arms, but I’m now being stood on and the smoke is actually encircling me. Can we turn the smoke off? Can someone give the Hospital Club a call ask them kindly to perhaps stop trying to gas us all, cheers.

11:26 – Seriously, not a great deal happens beforehand. There’s some milling about, some ‘networking’, the low hum of people talking about Twitter and Blackberrys, record company people (someone from XL is here! What does this MEAN!?) and free drink. I have yet to have any because I’m sat on the floor writing this for you good people.

11:30 – Bat For Lashes is playing now. It’s that one everyone loves from that album she released. Seriously, so much smoke, I can’t function…

11:31 – Lauren’s here!

Biffy Clyro

Villagers

Corinne Bailey Rae

Mumford & Sons

They’re the first four to be announced! Exciting times right here.

Paul Weller

Wild Beasts

Laura Marling

and someone else, hang on…Kit Downes Trio…LOVE THEM!

Dizzee Rascal

Foals

I Am Kloot

The xx

THAT’S IT! It’s so loud here I can’t think of what to say.

11:37 - OK, so whilst Corinne Bailey Rae plays a song (it was she I was talking about earlier and I feel bad now as her voice is amazeballs), let’s digest. There’s no Gorillaz, no These New Puritans, no Fuck Buttons and no Hot Chip. Also, my friend’s band’s album was in the running and it’s not on the final list either and it’s at least ten times better than that Foals album so there! They’re called Brigadier Ambrose by the way and this is their myspace.

11:40 -

Betting odds coming up!

6/1 – Laura, Mumford, Weller

4/1 – Dizzee and The xx

There was more but he speaks so fast! RUDE. Ohhh, Villagers is here (not his real name).

11:42 – So, what do you guys think of the list? It’s not exactly bursting with surprises. I guess it shows how much more folkier, rootsier (not words!) and, erm, earnest music is back, back, BACK! Three big folky albums in there and I’m enjoying this Villagers song but his album is a bit yawnsome. Now, Marling I like, it all seems genuine, but Mumford & Sons are folk for people who shop in Top Man. I’d rather they were not on this list and let’s just leave it there.

11:52 - OK, we’re in Heaven again now. It’s very bright. I have a bit of a headache, but that might be the smoke, the lack of a drink and then general ‘buzz’. I’m sitting with journos, hunting for a story about the list. Someone mentioned Weller being the oldest nominee, but he has no evidence. I think the story is the lack of dance acts (Dizzee aside, but he’s more ‘pop’ really) and obviously, the rise of ‘new folk’ or whatever we’re supposed to call it.

11:57 – Realised I didn’t write out the album titles before, so here we are:

Biffy Clyro – Only Revolutions – 8/1

I Am Kloot – Sky At Night – 10/1

Dizzee Rascal – Tongue N’ Cheek – 4/1

Paul Weller – Wake Up The Nation – 6/1

Corinne Bailey Rae – The Sea – 6/1

The xx – xx – 4/1

Villagers – Becoming A Jackal – 10/1

Kit Downes Trio – Golden – 10/1

Foals – Total Life Forever – 8/1

Laura Marling – I Speak Because I Can – 6/1

Wild Beasts – Two Dancers – 8/1

Mumford & Sons – Sigh No More – 6/1

12:03 - Corinne is now being shouted at by men who are trying to get her to turn this way and that. Is this how you should treat someone nominated for an award!? NO. I just took a picture of her, but she turned away so now I have a photo of the back of some bloke’s head. ‘Amazing’.

12:06 – We have a comment! And I agree with Greg, it’s not a list that makes me too excited about British music I have to say. It was all a bit predictable. Where’s Giggs? Where are the bands playing traditional folk in their bedrooms, recording all their songs using wisps of grass, tractors and tweed? Still, can I just say that I LOVE that Wild Beasts album and obviously The xx should win it because that album still makes me weep salty, 3am-on-the-bus-after-too-many-shandies type tears. I fear they may get over-looked as the album has been out for eleven months or so, but we’ll see.

12:10 - Paul Weller is here and he looks so unhappy. He’s also got very leathery skin and his hair is like snow. Nice suit though. “Is that Vogue calling? Yes, I would like to write about style for your publication, thank you”.

12:13 - Oh, I think I’ve figured out how to make these into paragraphs! Amazing. Bit late now, but still. Everyone else is mingling about and laughing about sales and release dates. I feel left out because those two things are genuinely what I enjoy talking about the most (ask my housemate…Duncan, you there? If so, can you get me some lunch, I’m proper starvin’).

12:16 - It’s Corinne AND Paul now. Er, why?

12: 17 - This is a bit of blurb about Kit Downes Trio:

After studying at both the Purcell School of Music and the Royal Academy of Music – Kit now plays regularly with his own trio, Stan Sulzman, Troyka, The Golden Age of Steam, Sam Crockatt and Clark Tracey – and has played with Joe Locke, Gilad Atzmon, Empirical, Gerard Presencer, Seb Rochford, Ian Ballamy, Peter Ind, Gwyneth Herbert, John Warren and Eugene Skeef. He has also performed with leading British bands Fraud, Asaf Sirkis’ Inner Noise, Gilad Atzmon’s Orient House Ensemble, Acoustic Ladyland, Nostalgia 77, 2000 Black, Silhouette Brown and Dennis Rollins’ Badbone and Co. He has also worked with up and coming Composer / Songwriter Micachu, with whome he recorded in Abbey Road for Matthew Herbert, recorded for BBC Radio 6 and played at the Sonar Music Festival ’07 in Barcelona. Kit’s work with Empirical has taken him to The North Sea Jazz Festival, The JVC Festivals in New York, Montreal and Newport, and Vancouver Jazz Festival. Empirical won ‘Best Album of the Year 2007’ in Jazzwise and the EBU Award at the North Sea Festival. Kit won the BBC ‘Rising Star’ Award in 2008 and was nominated for a British Jazz Award in both 2008 and 2009, he also won one of ‘Yamaha Jazz Scolarship’ Awards in 2009. Having been together since their first year at the Royal Academy of Music, the ‘Kit Downes Trio’ have been playing together since 2005. Their music concentrates on walking the fine line between improvisation and composition through an eclectic mix of influences. The band, featuring Calum Gourlay (Tommy Smith, Martin Speake, Tom Cawley) on bass and James Maddren (Marc Copland, Stan Sulzmann, Gwilym Simcock) on drums, has always been interested in making it’s music accessible, whilst not sacrificing any of it’s intellect – and doing so through new and original music. It has done this at the London Jazz Festival 2008 and 2009, Ronnie Scotts British Jazz Festival, BBC Radio 3 Live Broadcast, Glasgow Jazz Festival and Cheltenham Jazz Festival. Inspired by a wide range of influences, ranging from Bela Bartok to Keith Jarrett to Rufus Wainwright, the trio endeavors to both celebrate the classic piano trio tradition as well as develop it. They released their first album on Basho Records in November 2009. Kit is also a member of the F-IRE Collective.

12:19 – Clearly the best bit about this blurb is the fact that Kit is also a member of the F-IRE Collective, which makes him sound pretty dangerous. The poor Villagers lad, who is about 12, is now having his retinas burned by all the cameras. One woman just shrieked “LEFT” at him, like some crazed banshee woman.

12:20 - He’s so nervous and willing that if they all shouted “stick that award up your bottom” he clearly would.

12:24 - DIZZEE’S HERE! He did the whole paps thing with a massive smile on his face. As he should, this is his second nomination.

Sorry, that last bit didn’t make any sense. I’m too hungry to concentrate now. I meant, he should be happy, this is his second nomination and he’s won it before. Plus, he had some nice trainers on and we all know that can make the world seem a lot better can’t it?

12:28 – Now it’s Paul Weller and Dizzee! Why must Weller get a picture with every other artist? Does he just want them for his Facebook page?

I think that was there attempt at showing how diverse the whole thing is, like, “this is an old white man with a young black man and they genuinely respect each other’s music and have a common ground”. It’s like a warm hug, is it not?

12:35 - not a great deal happening now. I’m sat at a table by myself and there’s a pile of discarded Mercury press packs…OH HANG ON! The xx are here!

They’re all smiling and wearing neon tank tops and playful wigs! Amazeballs.

Of course they’re not. It’s all black, black, black and some more black, but there was a smile. Amusingly, someone from the photo hoard got told off for shouting.

12:41 - So, what have you guys been up to of late? Went to Latitude at the weekend, which was a lot of fun. Didn’t look in the mirror for four days and got home yesterday to find that my forehead and nose were bright pink! Proceeded to then fall asleep for a ‘nap’, only to wake up four hours later covered in drool and mouthing ‘help me’ to the wall.

12:44 - Three men in leather jackets and sensible denim have wondered into the photo bit by mistake…oh no, it’s I Am Kloot.

12:46 - Ladies and gentlemen, Duncan is in the building! Not this building, but the interweb building and you are wrong my friend, there is no food here. There is only drink and one toilet so if I have another drink I will probs have an accident. What do you make of this list Duncan my love?

12:51 - People near me have bags with free CDs in them. Pah! I don’t want any free CDs, you hear me!!! (Yes, yes I do).

12:55 - I’m actually checking my Facebook now…

12:58 - Two of Wild Beasts are here. One of them has some nice jeans on with no socks!

Poor lambs, they both staggered away as if they had just been blinded, which they probably had been. In other news, some people have BEER!

13:01 - I think I was supposed to Twitter this, but all this technology is doing my head in. Plus, you can all go there yourself and see what people are saying. The general consensus seems to be that The xx should win and that Mumford & Sons are a bunch of combine harvester driving, waistcoat wearing, weedy folk music making silly billies. Literally no-one is talking about Kit Downes Trio or I Am Kloot.

13:08 - Kit Downes Trio are here! AWWHHHOOOOOGGAAA! A lot less photos being taken it has to be said.

13:11 – I’m seriously going to need the loo soon. Should I blog from there? Is that weird?

13:16 - Foals are here now. Yannis is stood at the front as he’s the smallest, which is sweet. That woman is STILL shrieking.

13:17 - Villagers boy is sat at my table. He’s being very sweet, pretending he didn’t know there was a cash prize for this award. Oh darling innocent boy, welcome to the world of capitalism, money-making and cynical live bloggers.

13:19 - So, just to describe the scene. We’re on one side, then there’s the photo bit in the middle and then on the other side are all the interview people. The acts then have to walk around the interview bit doing, er, interviews. I swear down, Corinne Bailey Rae has only just left! She stared about fourteen hours ago.

13:24 – I’m waiting for Laura Marling to arrive but I have the sinking feeling she’s not here. This has made me sad. Although, I think she’d probably collapse in a beautiful heap in front of those nasty people and their long lenses. Villagers embryo is now signing posters. He’s so fresh and new, he just asked the press lady if his autograph was OK.

13:27 - Our uber-Lord/Lady Natalie Shaw has just posted a comment about the lack of synths on the list. It’s all about acoustic guitars, fiddles and straw hats Natalie, there’s no room for electricity or keyboards.

13:31 - Right, all the paps have left now, so I’m guessing Laura Marling isn’t turning up any time soon. Villagers man has left my table and I swear he just said “Thank you journalist” to the man doing to the interview. He realises all journalists have individual names, they don’t just exist under one banner, right? Maybe not. He’s my favourite of all the nominees in terms of accents by the way. In case you were keeping tabs.

13:34 - I’m Romeo done now! This has been a blast, thanks for reading it and baring with me. I’m going to buy a sandwich and go to the loo, but not in that order. Loo first, seriously.

HAVE A NICE REST OF YOUR DAY PEOPLE OF THE INTERNET.

The xx - xx

As Paul The Octopus isn’t returning our calls we’ll have to make do with our own physic cephalopod, Mitchell Stirling as he casts his tentacles over the elite 12 British and N. Irish records that might be receiving nods next week.

Last year I, like most people felt that Doves winning would be to similar to the Elbow win the previous year but didn’t think that would prevent them getting a nod (nor did the bookies, they were favourites). Similarly we all thought that Portishead’s Third was a lock the year before and it didn’t make it. This year we can’t even find odds before the nominations but you can pick up a vibe on a few releases.

The XX – XX: We’d would be frankly astounded if this doesn’t get nominated, it was already being talked about as a potential winner around the time of last year’s ceremony. WE fully expect it to go in as favourite once the nominations are announced as well based on the acclaim it received at the end of the year that wasn’t restricted to the UK indie press, it was lauded by the broadsheets, the older music press and even the likes of FACT, The Wire and Mixmag. We haven’t seen a reaction to a British record like that since Dummy a former Mercury Prize winner. The one to beat we feel.

Wild Beasts – Two Dancers: Discussed in similar terms last autumn as a potential winner when summer rolled round. It has also been applauded thoroughly for the delight it takes in it’s own outsider status from the striking imagery to the arresting melodies. We don’t think it has enough momentum behind it with its September release in the way The XX have though.

Laura Marling – I Speak Because I Can: We’ve rhapsodised a fair bit about Miss Marling on this site and to anyone that will listen. It seems critical and public consensus is catching up with me and she’ll likely add the nomination of her first album in 2008 with this one. We also fully expect it to be among the favourites when the odds are drawn up.

Marina and the Diamonds – The Family Jewels and Ellie Goulding – Lights: We’re almost flipping a coin on this one. The top two of the BBC’s Sound of…  poll at the start of the year and in the previous two years the women at the top of that list have had a 50% strike rate with Duffy and Little Boots not making the cut, La Roux and Adele did. We think a similar thing is going to happen this time and although neither album really set my pulses racing we’ll go with Marina for having slightly more of the star quality. Bank on at least one of them to make it though.

Delphic – Acolyte: With the slightly more leftfield guitar-indie of The XX and Wild Beasts it’s hard to think of a typical Conor NME indie type album that might make it so we’ll plump for Delphic on account of the high amounts of tips at the start of the year and the goodwill they still have from their incredible early singles.

Plan B – The Defamation of Strickland Banks: It was a surprise at the time that his ‘British Eminem’ debut didn’t attract the attentions of the judges who went with Sway’s This Is My Demo and likely couldn’t find room for both on the list. The change to an easier on the Radio 2 listener’s ears singing style and lack of calling everyone listening a c**t probably puts him in a good position to land on the list.

Others that could make it.

Like last year we’ll throw in albums we’d like to see on the list first. These New Puritans‘  Hidden would be high up on my nomination sheet, a step up from their debut as impressive as that of The Horrors last year. We are also a big fan of Race Horses‘ Goodbye Falkenburg but fear that if SFA can’t get on the last two lists it’s unlikely another Welsh band that has followed them can. (we’re sure Jude Rogers will try though!) If we’re following the saga of the release of Fanfarlo‘s Reservoir correctly, it should be eligible this year if entered but who knows on that one.

We’d love to see Field Music‘s third album on there but with the panel choosing not to include the excellent Tones of Town or The Week That Was, we’re not convinced that they’ll be sitting through a double album too often from their listening pile. Their loss, we know. We also would have loved to have seen Twilight Sad, Frightened Rabbit and Mystery Jets make the line-up in 2008 though we think they all suffered in what was a very strong year for the prize. Their most recent albums are all in with a shout of making it but we feel that they aren’t as strong as previous efforts. The Big Pink‘s debut seems a very long time ago now but Glasvegas managed to make the list after a long gap last time out. We’re 50:50 on A Brief History of Love doing likewise. We also can’t see Alex Turner making it four from four with Arctic Monkeys‘ Humbug certainly not a bad album by any standard but it’s autumn release handicaps it more than any perceived dip in quality we feel. A couple of albums that could make it on both strength and previous efforts feeling hard-done-by are Foals‘ Total Life Forever and Los Campesinos! with Romance is Boring.

With a presumed nod for Laura Marling we think, despite the wealth of talent in the indie folk box there’s probably only room for one more nomination; it would likely be Mumford and Sons. A band that have had stratospheric rise in the past 12 months with a feverent fan-base that clearly adores them and their intense live show as well as lashings of Radio 1 play their have the wind in their sails despite a large amount of sniping at them. This probably means no place for Noah & the Whale‘s The First Days of Spring or Peggy Sue‘s Fossils and Other Phantoms as there surely wouldn’t be a third album from that corner of the world. Previous nominees The Unthanks and newcomers Stornoway and Goldheart Assembly are more on the Radio 2/Uncut end of the folk spectrum so they could usurp Mumford and Sons or join them in a heavily folky list.

Moving away from guitars there’s every chance that Hot Chip‘s recent effort One Life Stand, a more complete effort than Made In The Dark could be nominated like 2006′s The Warning was. We also think that if Four Tet are ever going to get a nomination than this is year with There Is Love in You, one of the best received albums of the year. In a similar vein Fuck Buttons, Scuba, James Yuill and Broadcast and The Focus Group may feel in with a shout.

Typically there’s a Irish nomination just to remind everyone that Irish acts are eligible prime suspect this year is likely to be the joyful but lightweight indie pop of Two Door Cinema Club or Dublin’s Villagers. Former nominees Polar Bear, Dizzee Rascal, Portico Quartet, Maps, Fyfe Dangerfield, Jamie T and Richard Hawley all have perfectly serviceable albums that could make it. Muse’s last album was terrible but that doesn’t stop the panel from including one record a year to really annoy us. A much better home-grown stadium rock effort would be Biffy Clyro who surely deserve a look-in for persistence alone.

There are a few acts that’ve never been on the list that might make a debut Steve Mason’s Beta Band never made the cut. Nor, surprisingly did Grammy and BRIT nominee Corinne Bailey Rae with her debut. We think she may well atone for that oversight. Paul Weller has his best album since 1993 nomination for Wild Wood but we don’t think he’s the kind of act they’d want to nominate still. What price a nomination for Teenage Fanclub or The Fall after all these years? (We can’t see them wanting Mark E. Smith gurning at Lauren Laverne in September to be honest.)

We have also mulled records by The Cribs, North Atlantic Oscillation, Archie Bronson Outfit, Rox, Bombay Bicycle Club, New Young Pony Club, Massive Attack, Lonelady, Pulled Apart By Horses, Tunng, Kate Nash, The Chemical Brothers and Blood Red Shoes and could only see NYPC or Lonelady sneaking on to the list but we’re not going to tip them.

We wanted to mention Slow Club as a nominee we’d like to see but Charles and Rebecca’s wonderful debut falls outside of the dates for being on this year’s list after looking it up. Anyone who is suggesting Gorrilaz will be nominated may want to do their homework on the band’s previous nomination though!

Our final predictions: The XX, Wild Beasts, Laura Marling, Marina and The Diamonds, Plan B, Delphic, Four Tet, Foals, Biffy Clyro, Mumford and Sons, Empirical and Villagers.

Half a dozen more to cover our tracks: Scuba, Ellie Goulding, The Fall, Corrine Bailey Rae, Hot Chip and These New Puritans.

How accurate will we be?

Speech Debelle wins the Mercury Prize

People talking about music is one of the great success stories of the digital age. It’s opened up so many opportunities for bands to get their music to an audience, and it’s given music fans the chance to hear untold amounts of life changing new music that fifteen years ago they would never have got near. But nothing inspires tedious recurring bitching among British and Irish music fans like the Mercury Prize. In the six weeks since the announcement of the shortlist, as with so many previous years, I’ve found myself jaded by the same tired old arguments that rear their gruesome heads every twelve months:

“It’s criminal that (band a) aren’t nominated”

“(band z)/rapper b) are the token jazz/hip-hop act”

‘”band x) are too big, they don’t need the award”

“The Mercury hasn’t been relevant for years”

So I pose the question, is now the time to revamp the way the Mercury Prize works? After all, if Kasabian can be nominated for an award which famously claims to reward innovation, something must be amiss, right? Well, the Prize’s past is hardly blameless. Let’s not forget, historic nominees include Simply Red, Dina Carroll and Mark Morrison. And then of course, we had the prize’s darkest hour in 1994 which saw M People beat Blur and Pulp to the prize.

The American version of the Mercury, The Shortlist Music Prize restricts entry to albums which have not attained Gold status. Perhaps it’s time the Mercury adopted a similar approach. Of this year’s twelve Mercury-nominated artists, five (Florence and the Machine, La Roux, Glasvegas, Kasabian, and Bat For Lashes) have sold in excess of the British Gold record threshold of 100,000, and would therefore have been precluded from entering if this rule were adopted. Would the shortlist really have been poorer without these artists? Arguments can be made in favour of all of them (with the exception of Kasabian, obviously), but none of them really need the leg-up in terms of sales and increase profile that victory would have provided. Each are strong bets for Brit award nominations, something which is arguably a lot more appropriate for musicians with that level of exposure.

This year’s winning album, Speech Debelle’s debut Speech Therapy is the lowest-selling winner of the prize ever, having shifted 3,000 copies up to its victory. Given her desire to record which was fuelled by a love of music (that classic, if painfully clichéd image of kids in their bedrooms trying to emulate their heroes), and her affiliation with Ninja Tune, a hard-working London independent which has been around almost as long as the Mercury, it’s difficult to begrudge her victory, even if you aren’t a particular fan of her music. Sweet Billy Pilgrim are a similar story. Having slogged away for years, paying the bills with day jobs and session muso gigs, their lovely second album Twice Born Men was also nominated having previously slipped under the radar of the vast majority of music fans. Surely these are worthier candidates for a £20,000 prize which wouldn’t even keep La Roux in hairspray for a month?

The judges of the prize face a pretty unenviable task. Semi-legendary tales persist of heated arguments carrying on right through the bands’ performances on the night until a dishevelled spokesperson has to run down to the stage to breathlessly announce the winner before the papers go to press. To be fair though, this gives the Mercury a bit of ramshackle charm in keeping with it‘s ‘alternative’ reputation. After all, what’s would be an adequate substitute for a group of industry types arguing in a room? An online vote? You can just imagine the carnage and vote-rigging which would ensue. The Mercury might be severely flawed in some ways, but one thing we have to remember is that it aims to pick the single best British and Irish album of the year, and as such will always be massively divisive.

So all things considered, the Mercury Prize has its plus points and negatives. It has failed spectacularly in its aims in the past, and needs to refocus its purpose, in particular putting more thought into its nominees. However, Speech Debelle’s victory this week has stirred up enough interesting debate aside from the usual banalities to prove that the prize still has at least some kind of relevance.

Lauren Laverne

Ever wondered exactly how the judging panel comes to its decision on the winner of the Barclaycard Mercury Prize? Muso’s Guide caught up with previous judge and current BBC presenter Lauren Laverne for the inside track just before the winner was revealed.

MG: Hey Lauren. What are you up to tonight?

LL: I am here to present BBC2’s live coverage. We’re live from 10-10.30, Jools is gonna be doing the announcement live on the show and I throw to him. Get this – I’m in charge of him! Obviously, he has to be there or the whole thing falls down like a pack of cards… I’ve been here all day observing, enjoying, drinking in the atmosphere.

MG: Come on then – who do you think will win the Prize?

LL: I’ve judged before for a few years and I’m just glad I’m not this year ‘cos it’s very very close, a tough call and a strong list. Usually it’s between ‘X’ and ‘Y’ but this year I think it could go any way. You know, you’ve got Florence – I love her so much and would be so glad if she won – and then you’ve got big hitters like Kasabian, all the way to these really small bands like Sweet Billy Pilgrim. Their album was recorded in a shed and only sold 1000 [copies] pre-nomination. Tim from the band found out they were nominated when he was fitting a toilet for work and actually, do you know what, they’ve got a really good shot! So I just don’t know, I can’t call it.

MG: How exactly does the judging panel work?

LL: It’s so complicated; it depends, really, from year to year. They always say you can’t judge it on “what is the best album?” as that’s subjective, so they’ll be looking for something that sums up the year. I think they’re looking for something that represents Britain and Ireland; you know, they’re looking for a number of things, and you can see what would tick those boxes but it depends. I sort of know who’s on the panel, and having done it for a few years I can hear their arguments but even then I don’t know which way it’s gonna go. It’s sort of like Twelve Angry Men but with vol au vents! Lots of shots of people with beads of sweat glistening on foreheads… They’ll still be doing it now, downstairs in a room. You get brought up to watch the performances and then you get taken back down, and you get your dinner, and depending how difficult the decision is, you either eat it or not!

MG: Have you heard about Los Campesinos! and Dananananaykroyd planning to go on tour and cover Kenickie songs?

LL: No, really!? My goodness. Well, Dananananaykroyd, their singer is married to Jaff from The Futureheads and Barry from The Futureheads goes out with Marie who used to be in Kenickie [Lauren's got a bit mixed up here! Ed.], so there is linkage there: a Venn diagram to be had.

MG: One last question: will Kenickie ever reform?

LL: Errrr, I think probably not, I don’t see it. When you’ve got hot young properties like Dananananaykroyd and Los Campesinos! covering you, the pop scene has no need of us.

And with that she tottered off in her very glam high heels, ready to begin the tag-team with Jools and announce that Speech Debelle is 2009′s Mercury Prize winner.

Mercury Prize

Snippets! Gossips! Rumours? Things. We have them all, or rather we did, last night, from the red carpet and beyond.

Rab Allan of Glasvegas is a very nice chap, and he told us about their plans for next year: “The new album is basically finished, we’ve just got to record it.” This was all as singer (and cousin) James Allan disappeared – Rab told us he was ill but we heard from elsewhere that he’d “gone missing”. Odd. He continued: “We’ve been writing since the Christmas album. It’s being recorded with Rich Costey again, and James has actually just finished some demos. The new album’s a little bit more upbeat – it looks more towards the future, redemption as opposed to looking back.” Good stuff, should be nice.

Sweet Billy Pilgrim recognised us, that was also nice. We saw them at the Union Chapel a little while back so were extra-pleased when they received a nomination – in spite of henchman Tim Elsenburg still holding down his day-job as a service maintenance type man who famously found out about the nomination while fitting a toilet: “We’re going from immortal fear to massive excitement. The nerves have settled after the media run – it’s all so new and exciting to us. I think we’ve plateau’d! Our palms are less sweaty than they were at the beginning.” Bless them. “We got mistaken for our own road crew – we don’t have any. We’re the only band that don’t! The crew here found it hilarious – they said “where are your crew?”, and I said “gather round, lads”.

The Horrors‘ Spider Webb and Joshua Third also spoke to us about their performance at Offset on the weekend and the new track they’d just finished recording with Damon Albarn: “At Offset, everything that could’ve gone wrong did go wrong.” Yeah there were technical problems (45 minutes’ worth!) but we didn’t spot them – they played a great set, and were pleased when we told them this. “That’s good,” they said. Back to the new song… “We finished a new track yesterday which is going to be released soon, called ‘Whole New Way’. It doesn’t sound like anything on the last record, it just sounds like us. I don’t see the point of putting out more and more singles.”

Dave Okumu from The Invisible is a very lovely chap, who chatted to us for about 20 minutes on the balcony before we got the dictaphone out. When we did, we parodied the media run: “How do you feel about being nominated?”. Honestly, this is what happens on the media run. It’s astounding how bands’ ears prick up when you tell them you’ve seen them live, truly astonishing. Alas, The Invisible are doing great stuff: “We were asked to be in Covent Garden at about midday when the nominations were announced but we didn’t know whether we’d been nominated. We were just waiting nervously to hear the results, and then we just started getting an influx of texts from our friends saying “well done”. If I could’ve cartwheeled I would’ve done.”

Other gossip – a certain nichely famous TV presenter was eyeballing us all night, and even came across as a bit of a sleaze(o). Get that? 3AM girls, eat yo’ soulless hearts out. What does that even mean?

Strange news – just after Speech Debelle had been announced as the winner, Noel Fielding came stumbling past us with members of Kasabian either side, and kissed our Live Editor Catherine Wilson on the leg.

More coverage from Muso’s Towers will follow shortly such as a chat with Lauren Laverne where she talks about Kenickie, the judging panel and much more.

Setting the scene at London's Grosvenor House...

The first arrival - it's Muso's Guide's very own Catherine Wilson

Followed swiftly by, er, me

THERE WERE LOADS OF PEOPLE WITH CAMERAS

And even though the day was drawing close, they didn't need their flash for Beth Ditto

What the hell are you wearing, mate? (this is La Roux's Ellie Jackson)

A bit of bromance for Led Bib, who also had sexy backs

Cheer up, Kasabian. It might never happen! Oh, wait -

Look, it's Noel Fielding. Not nominated, don't you fret.

Speech Debelle. TEASER ALERT: she won.

The End. More coverage and quotes and gossip to come later, keep coming back!

Speech Debelle - Speech Therapy

Made winner of the Barclaycard Mercury Prize literally just now, 26-year-old Corynne Elliot’s mix of live instrumentation and acoustic-led hip-hop would make her the first rap-orientated winner of the prize since Dizzee Rascal in 2003. Compared regularly to colloquial pop forces such as Lily Allen and Jamie T, Speech Debelle’s blend of jazz-incorporating warmth means her work is far more organic and intimate than the above references would suggest. Released through Big Dada, with arrangements by Lotek Hi-Fi’s Wayne Bennett and featuring guest appearance from Roots Manuva (alongside the more experimental Micachu), the album stands as a refreshing illustration of the often-maligned UK hip-hop scene.

The album’s soft acoustic pluckings are juxtaposited with Elliot’s frank and candid lyrical subject matter, dealing with her feelings towards her absent father (‘Daddy’s Little Girl’) and her relatively recent homelessness. ’The Key’ shows a more weightier, dancefloor-ready element to her sphere, despite the gentle, ornate clarinets. Like several of the album’s tracks, ‘Better Days’, performed with Micachu, would stand up as an instrumental, such is the rich, engaging blend of instrumentation on show, recalling The Herbaliser, whilst new single ‘Spinnin’ is the closest to a crossover hit in her repertoire, instantly accessible yet displaying all her best elements.

The diary-esque tone of the lyricism on offer coupled with Elliot’s still incredibly youthful tones means parts of the album come across as being slightly adolescent, despite her 26 years. This is forgiven by the way of the nostalgic form the album takes, but often amongst the solemn, autumnal arrangements atmospheric keys, and subtle yet dramatic strings, the vocals come close to being the weakest link. Additionally, one-time Mercury nominee Roots Manuva’s brief contribution to the otherwise charming ‘Wheels In Motion’ is massively inconsequential and disappointing considering both the sonic ambition and bruised lyrical honesty they both share – and he’s never been known as a singer – though the possibility of superior future collaborations is a consolation.

Now for the Prize to see this album hit a crosshair…

Mercury Prize

Here we are at Grosvenor House, and they have just announced that the winner of the prize in 2009, and loads more album sales is… (HOLD THAT BREATH)

SPEECH DEBELLE!!!

That is a shocker and a half… keep refreshing for more….

A large section of the room erupts into cheers as Speech Debelle is announced as 2009′s winner. Everyone’s shouting “SPEECH” and for more than one reason. The feeling in the room and in the Muso’s camp was that The Invisible might be the chosen ones, and the crowd certainly agreed with their applause during the  video round-up.

Well done Speech!