Speech Debelle wins the Mercury Prize

People talking about music is one of the great success stories of the digital age. It’s opened up so many opportunities for bands to get their music to an audience, and it’s given music fans the chance to hear untold amounts of life changing new music that fifteen years ago they would never have got near. But nothing inspires tedious recurring bitching among British and Irish music fans like the Mercury Prize. In the six weeks since the announcement of the shortlist, as with so many previous years, I’ve found myself jaded by the same tired old arguments that rear their gruesome heads every twelve months:

“It’s criminal that (band a) aren’t nominated”

“(band z)/rapper b) are the token jazz/hip-hop act”

‘”band x) are too big, they don’t need the award”

“The Mercury hasn’t been relevant for years”

So I pose the question, is now the time to revamp the way the Mercury Prize works? After all, if Kasabian can be nominated for an award which famously claims to reward innovation, something must be amiss, right? Well, the Prize’s past is hardly blameless. Let’s not forget, historic nominees include Simply Red, Dina Carroll and Mark Morrison. And then of course, we had the prize’s darkest hour in 1994 which saw M People beat Blur and Pulp to the prize.

The American version of the Mercury, The Shortlist Music Prize restricts entry to albums which have not attained Gold status. Perhaps it’s time the Mercury adopted a similar approach. Of this year’s twelve Mercury-nominated artists, five (Florence and the Machine, La Roux, Glasvegas, Kasabian, and Bat For Lashes) have sold in excess of the British Gold record threshold of 100,000, and would therefore have been precluded from entering if this rule were adopted. Would the shortlist really have been poorer without these artists? Arguments can be made in favour of all of them (with the exception of Kasabian, obviously), but none of them really need the leg-up in terms of sales and increase profile that victory would have provided. Each are strong bets for Brit award nominations, something which is arguably a lot more appropriate for musicians with that level of exposure.

This year’s winning album, Speech Debelle’s debut Speech Therapy is the lowest-selling winner of the prize ever, having shifted 3,000 copies up to its victory. Given her desire to record which was fuelled by a love of music (that classic, if painfully clichéd image of kids in their bedrooms trying to emulate their heroes), and her affiliation with Ninja Tune, a hard-working London independent which has been around almost as long as the Mercury, it’s difficult to begrudge her victory, even if you aren’t a particular fan of her music. Sweet Billy Pilgrim are a similar story. Having slogged away for years, paying the bills with day jobs and session muso gigs, their lovely second album Twice Born Men was also nominated having previously slipped under the radar of the vast majority of music fans. Surely these are worthier candidates for a £20,000 prize which wouldn’t even keep La Roux in hairspray for a month?

The judges of the prize face a pretty unenviable task. Semi-legendary tales persist of heated arguments carrying on right through the bands’ performances on the night until a dishevelled spokesperson has to run down to the stage to breathlessly announce the winner before the papers go to press. To be fair though, this gives the Mercury a bit of ramshackle charm in keeping with it‘s ‘alternative’ reputation. After all, what’s would be an adequate substitute for a group of industry types arguing in a room? An online vote? You can just imagine the carnage and vote-rigging which would ensue. The Mercury might be severely flawed in some ways, but one thing we have to remember is that it aims to pick the single best British and Irish album of the year, and as such will always be massively divisive.

So all things considered, the Mercury Prize has its plus points and negatives. It has failed spectacularly in its aims in the past, and needs to refocus its purpose, in particular putting more thought into its nominees. However, Speech Debelle’s victory this week has stirred up enough interesting debate aside from the usual banalities to prove that the prize still has at least some kind of relevance.

Mercury Prize

Snippets! Gossips! Rumours? Things. We have them all, or rather we did, last night, from the red carpet and beyond.

Rab Allan of Glasvegas is a very nice chap, and he told us about their plans for next year: “The new album is basically finished, we’ve just got to record it.” This was all as singer (and cousin) James Allan disappeared – Rab told us he was ill but we heard from elsewhere that he’d “gone missing”. Odd. He continued: “We’ve been writing since the Christmas album. It’s being recorded with Rich Costey again, and James has actually just finished some demos. The new album’s a little bit more upbeat – it looks more towards the future, redemption as opposed to looking back.” Good stuff, should be nice.

Sweet Billy Pilgrim recognised us, that was also nice. We saw them at the Union Chapel a little while back so were extra-pleased when they received a nomination – in spite of henchman Tim Elsenburg still holding down his day-job as a service maintenance type man who famously found out about the nomination while fitting a toilet: “We’re going from immortal fear to massive excitement. The nerves have settled after the media run – it’s all so new and exciting to us. I think we’ve plateau’d! Our palms are less sweaty than they were at the beginning.” Bless them. “We got mistaken for our own road crew – we don’t have any. We’re the only band that don’t! The crew here found it hilarious – they said “where are your crew?”, and I said “gather round, lads”.

The Horrors‘ Spider Webb and Joshua Third also spoke to us about their performance at Offset on the weekend and the new track they’d just finished recording with Damon Albarn: “At Offset, everything that could’ve gone wrong did go wrong.” Yeah there were technical problems (45 minutes’ worth!) but we didn’t spot them – they played a great set, and were pleased when we told them this. “That’s good,” they said. Back to the new song… “We finished a new track yesterday which is going to be released soon, called ‘Whole New Way’. It doesn’t sound like anything on the last record, it just sounds like us. I don’t see the point of putting out more and more singles.”

Dave Okumu from The Invisible is a very lovely chap, who chatted to us for about 20 minutes on the balcony before we got the dictaphone out. When we did, we parodied the media run: “How do you feel about being nominated?”. Honestly, this is what happens on the media run. It’s astounding how bands’ ears prick up when you tell them you’ve seen them live, truly astonishing. Alas, The Invisible are doing great stuff: “We were asked to be in Covent Garden at about midday when the nominations were announced but we didn’t know whether we’d been nominated. We were just waiting nervously to hear the results, and then we just started getting an influx of texts from our friends saying “well done”. If I could’ve cartwheeled I would’ve done.”

Other gossip – a certain nichely famous TV presenter was eyeballing us all night, and even came across as a bit of a sleaze(o). Get that? 3AM girls, eat yo’ soulless hearts out. What does that even mean?

Strange news – just after Speech Debelle had been announced as the winner, Noel Fielding came stumbling past us with members of Kasabian either side, and kissed our Live Editor Catherine Wilson on the leg.

More coverage from Muso’s Towers will follow shortly such as a chat with Lauren Laverne where she talks about Kenickie, the judging panel and much more.

Setting the scene at London's Grosvenor House...

The first arrival - it's Muso's Guide's very own Catherine Wilson

Followed swiftly by, er, me

THERE WERE LOADS OF PEOPLE WITH CAMERAS

And even though the day was drawing close, they didn't need their flash for Beth Ditto

What the hell are you wearing, mate? (this is La Roux's Ellie Jackson)

A bit of bromance for Led Bib, who also had sexy backs

Cheer up, Kasabian. It might never happen! Oh, wait -

Look, it's Noel Fielding. Not nominated, don't you fret.

Speech Debelle. TEASER ALERT: she won.

The End. More coverage and quotes and gossip to come later, keep coming back!

Mercury Prize

Here we are at Grosvenor House, and they have just announced that the winner of the prize in 2009, and loads more album sales is… (HOLD THAT BREATH)

SPEECH DEBELLE!!!

That is a shocker and a half… keep refreshing for more….

A large section of the room erupts into cheers as Speech Debelle is announced as 2009’s winner. Everyone’s shouting “SPEECH” and for more than one reason. The feeling in the room and in the Muso’s camp was that The Invisible might be the chosen ones, and the crowd certainly agreed with their applause during the  video round-up.

Well done Speech!

Glasvegas

Glasvegas‘ new album is all but recorded and will be released next year, according to Rab Allan who we spoke to on the red carpet at Grosvenor House around one hour ago.

Unfortunately, the band are unable to play at today’s ceremony because lead singer James Allan has been taken ill, but the good news is that the new album is sounding “less mournful”.

We believe this is what’s known as An Exclusive.

Barclaycard Mercury Prize

Our lovely writers at Muso’s are known to enjoy sticking 20p each way on the horses, and even for making some cash from betting on the annual Mercury Prize. So who are they tipping for the gong this year? Is Florence odds on favourite or are Kasabian going to kill it?

STUART ANDERSON

My Pick: This year it’s all about the chicks. Florence Welch, Bat for Lashes and La Roux. But whom out of the three? I mean they’ve all released solid albums, they’re all a bit weird and they’re all fit: therefore they all fill the requirements for a lass winning the award. “Evidence?”, you cry? PJ Harvey who won 2001’s award with Stories from the City, Stories from the Sea. She crafted a solid album (not her finest though), she’s mad as a box of frogs and you wouldn’t kick her out of bed, would you?

Some will go for Bat for Lashes because she missed out last year, but my filthy lucre is on Florence and the Machine because they/she came straight out of left field and immediately bowled over audiences and critics alike. And frankly, that voice is amazing, as is her crazy dancing. She’s the complete package. Personally, I also really hope she does win because I’m sick and bloody tired of seeing Two Suns posters all over London Underground, and if Bat for Lashes wins, you can bet your bottom dollar that they’ll stick a “Mercury Price Winner” banner on them just to really piss everyone off.

Daft Fiver: Kasabian – because they’ve got stupid hair and some people like that sort of thing; oh, and this applies equally to Glasvegas; James Allan’s quiff probably houses a brood of pigeons – with space for a can of Special Brew and a packet of Lambert & Butler Gold.

Florence Welch

RICHARD WINK

My Pick: Unfortunately the Mercury Prize nominations list has become rather formulaic with the indie darlings, the pop flavour of the month, and the token entries from the worlds of folk, jazz and hip hop. None of these are ‘great’ albums, but I am picking Florence to be the first female winner since Ms. Dynamite in 2002. She’ll win because she’s more likeable than Bats for Lashes.

Daft Fiver: The Horrors.

CHRISTOPHER PANKS

My Pick: I think Bat for Lashes will win; I wouldn’t actually agree with that decision, but I think the album is good enough. From the shortlist, my favourite album is probably The Invisible, but I can’t see them winning. I was personally disappointed not to see Emmy The Great, Dananananakroyd or Liam Frost on the list; guess there’s always next year for Liam.

Daft Fiver: Put five bucks on Kasabian, Glasvegas or La Roux. If you’re going to witness the death of creditable music, you may as well profit financially. It’s the recession, y’all!

Friendly Fires

JAMIE SMITH

My Pick: Obviously Friendly Fires or Glasvegas should clearly win, but I reckon the ‘kooky charm’ of Florence and her Machine will sway the judges. I don’t get it myself – she seems to be this year’s Marmite act – but her eclecticity seems like exactly the sort of thing that the Mercury judges usually go for. Her acquired taste vocals and penchant for vintage style makes her a highly watchable performer, and despite the amount of filler on her album Lungs, I can’t see where else the prize could go this year.

Daft Fiver: Kasabian. Having been written off as just another ladrock band, they genuinely seem to be rising above that and doing something different. Critically, their third album was well recieved, and this year has seen them become one of Britain’s biggest bands. It would be a shock, but the judges might just reward them for trying to stand out from the crowd in their field.

PAUL TAYLOR

My Pick: The Horrors – Primary Colours. Although it rarely turns out that way, the Mercury Prize should be awarded on merit, creativity and talent. So by that logic, the only obvious winner from the shortlist is Primary Colours by The Horrors – an album so far ahead of the other eleven for quality that it’s crass. If the bookies are to believed then it appears that Faris Badwan et al will be overlooked, but after the criticisms levelled at them for Strange House, many will see this as a leap in the right direction, whatever the outcome on results night.

Daft Fiver: Stick all twelve into a hat, and cross your fingers.

MITCHELL STIRLING

My Pick: Looking over the current music trends in the UK, the number of years since the last female victory and most importantly the strength of the album and her narrow failure to beat the Klaxons in 2007 I’m going to have to go with Bat For Lashes’s Two Suns. ‘Daniel’ is one of the singles of the year, opener ‘Glass’ sounds like it was produced by Martin Hannett and of course Scott Walker actually sings, not dribbles down his chin, on ‘The Big Sleep’.

Daft Fiver: There’s no such thing as a daft fiver if you’ve covered five acts on Betfair. Friendly Fires and La Roux are good value at 11/1, Florence and The Machine won’t win, 7/2 is not a good price.

Mercury Prize

We’re sat in The Hospital Club awaiting the announcement of the 12 artists set to vie for Elbow’s crown, otherwise known as this year’s Barclaycard Mercury Prize, and we’re as eager to find out who’s gonna see a sales soar as you.

That was it in short form; we’ve chatted about who our shoe-ins for the Mercury Prize in depth already, so if you haven’t read that yet then have a read.

Micachu? Sons of Noel and Adrian? Friendly Fires? Bat For Lashes? All good bets, if we had our say. Which will hopefully be the case in time (er, hello panel-chooserers) but for now we’ll have to make do with the position of mere onlookers.

So it’s now 11.03 and the room is chocka with hacks and the like, everyone waiting eagerly to see if the list will comprise something interesting, something safe or, well, as per, a combination of the above. Plus your token jazz and folk nominations, of course. If we’re talking outsiders, what would be great (in our expert opinion) would be nods for such wonders as Jeremy Warmsley and The Week That Was. White Lies and Doves and it’ll be just another case of the damned convenience. Not long to wait now… keep hitting F5 for more!

In the event that our social networking skills have already attracted a sizeable crowd of you hitting said F5 (or, god forbid, a CTRL + F5 combo if you’re feeling hardcore), please excuse us while we play the role of a synth-based band on a massive festival stage who’ve just endured a power cut. Is it a joke you’re after? Well you’ll have to wait a bit longer.

Update: it’s now 11.12. You are witnessing the unfolding of my mind. Yes, that’s right, I’m no longer a ‘we’. I just can’t hack it anymore. The room is fairly static. It’s still 11.12.

It is now 11.17. Myself and laptop are now in the studio. It is quite dark here. Estelle’s ‘American Boy’ is playing.

11.20: Elbow’s ‘Grounds For Divorce’ playing now. See a theme?

11.24 – British Sea Power being streamed. I want them to play something from Portishead’s Third by accident.

Just hit the 11.25 mark and I have decided to sit on the floor. I don’t possess balance enough to liveblog standing up. It’s just too much.

The main news at an impending 11.27 is that I am stuck with a vintage chewing gum. By which I mean it tastes like dust and is overpriced and unsellable. And old.

Can’t really see that much. Have potentially just spotted person with portable fold-out chair. What is this, the Green Man? Alternatively it could be a tiny pop-up tent.

My poor loves, have I left you without news for four whole minutes? Keep waiting, it has just gone silent… duh duh duh…

False alarm. Laura Marling song is on. Did you know that Laura Marling is extremely popular among the Muso’s Guide writers? I didn’t until very recently. I’d guess they may fight over her at auction.

OOH Lauren Laverne is here. I can hear her. It is dark.

Nominations here!

Glasvegas – Glasvegas

Bat For Lashes – Two Suns

Lisa Hannigan – Sea Sow

The Horrors – Primary Colours

Sorry that was an outburst. So… Glasvegas, I mean really? They’re a poor man’s Twilight Sad. Like a Lidl JAMC. Or should I say Wembley Market offcuts ott-reverb.

Kasabian – West Rider Lunatic Pauper Asylum (is that what it’s called?!)

Led Bib – Sensible Shoes

The Invisible – The Invisible

La Roux – La Roux

The Invisible is a massive surprise! Great news. They’re playing ‘London Girl’ as a highlight, my favourite track. Kasabian though?! Woah.

Friendly Fires – Friendly Fires (hurrah!)

Sweet Billy Pilgrim – Twice Born Men

Speech Debelle – Speech Therapy

Florence and The Machine – Lungs

Well, well! How interesting. Sweet Billy Pigrim representing Willkommen is fantastic news and we were totally right about the lack of Doves. That is just great. It’s an interesting list, more than expected actually. Friendly Fires is great news. But where’s Micachu? Huh?

Some performances are just about to happen here. Lisa Hannigan’s coming on…

11.39 says it’s lovely, twinkly, delicate folk. Just a thought, hold on – are Led Bib the token jazz? Also The Invisible’s nomination is such a surprise. But Kasabian? Honestly… is it something to do with our #kasabiangate, perhaps? Where’s the ambition there? Wondering if there’s going to be a chance to heckle the judges soon.

Lauren Laverne is speaking in TV voice. And William Hill’s Rupert Adams is here with the odds. Hold up….

10-1 Sweet Billy Pilgrim, Speech Debelle

6-1 La Roux, Glasvegas, Bat For Lashes

5-1 Kasabian, La Roux

Too fast! That’s all we caught. Bets can be made from midday today. But woah there are Kasabian joint favourites? Can someone slap me round the face until this becomes an illusion?

Oh god Kasabian are here. Ever so slightly scared they may find me and try to kill me. HELP.

I saw them once, when I (for some ridiculous reason) went to the Isle of Wight festival. They almost made me projectile vomit. Onto them. I was some way back in the crowd.

(there is a danger of it happening again)

(tell them to hurry up and be less selfish)

(they have just finished, I am going to survive! Woo!)

It’s 11.52. I’ve been moved upstairs. I have a refreshment now, to get over Kasabian.

On the way up, I was just in front of Lauren Laverne who said to someone (T4 presenter, I think), “Peter Andre’s such a lovely man”. Where’s his nomination? Eh?

And for what it’s worth, I’m no WIllkommen expert (apart from seeing the show at the Union Chapel a month or so ago), but I do know that Sweet Billy Pilgrim played it. You try liveblogging at the speed of lightning, commenter. (x)

So, a recap:

Bat For Lashes: great
Florence and The Machine: not
Friendly Fires: brilliant
Glasvegas: really?
Kasabian: suicide-inducing
La Roux: better than Little Boots, still wrist-slittingly bad
Led Bib: unknown quantity
Lisa Hannigan: token folk
Speech Debelle: Plan B favourite, I’m yet to see the attraction – seemed quite narcissistic without charm on first listen
Sweet Billy Pilgrim: surprising, and a super album
The Horrors: surely the favourite? a great LP
The Invisible: also surprising, and brilliant

Everyone appears to be frothing over the T4 presenter. No-one knows who she is. I do. Ha ha ha.

And the odds, to reiterate, suggest that the joint favourites are Florence and The Machine and Kasabian, at 5-1. The outsiders are only on 10-1. What is this, the middle ground?

The cameraheads just went mental for La Laverne. They were baying for her. “Here!”, “oi”, “LAUREN”. Etc. Not really.

A quote from Simon Frith, Chair of Judges: “There are seven fine debut albums on the list and five outstanding records from more established acts, all marking out new ground. What most impresses is the imaginative verve with which British and Irish musicians continue to explore musical possibilities, push musical boundaries and refuse to be pinned down by genre”.

It’s all very well but the 12 albums can be pinned down into a few easy categories: terrace anthems (Kasabian, Glasvegas), female (Florence, La Roux), urban – even though it’s a misnomer (Speech Debelle), not quite made it but received lots of acclaim (The Invisible), dancey indie (Friendly Fires), folk (Sweet Billy Pilgrim, Lisa Hannigan), obscure (Led Bib – who on later reflection, we’d predicted for a nod GO US), great second albums (Bat For Lashes, The Horrors). There’s the 12.

And on a more interesting note, there’s five albums in there we’d like to see win. The other seven on the other hand, would be absolutely terrible. Can you guess which ones?

I know you’re F5′ing like a maniac.

Sorry I just got distracted by Kasabian. I took a brilliant photo of them with my Casio Exilim; award-winning. Laptop battery is dying, sadface. But is anyone still reading this? I realise how unfunny it will read as a stream-of-consciousness-in-hindsight. There is bottled beer flying around, perhaps that is more exciting? Nah, I wouldn’t be so cruel.

I’d like any of the following to win: Bat For Lashes, Friendly Fires, Sweet Billy Pilgrim, The Horrors, The Invisible. So there.

Nothing here could be of more value than M People’s win in 1994, right?

Here’s some multimedia fun! It’s a photo of Kasabian taken by yours truly:

Kasabian

And hot off the press, a photo of the beautiful Natasha Khan (aka Bat For Lashes), who bowled me over at Latitude on the weekend:

Bat For Lashes' Natasha Khan

And on that note, precious and dedicated and humble and loyal readers, I must bid you farewell. The laptop is comatose. More opinion to follow later, thanks for reading and bearing with the RSS feed of my mind!

The lock-ins

Even with that heading there’s no guarantee on these, last year Portishead’s Third seemed such a nailed on nomination that I scanned the list two or three times to check I hadn’t missed it. So if you do spend a couple of quid on the following to win, we shoulder no blame. Take some solace in that we are likely to have got stung as well though.

Doves

Doves – Kingdom of Rust

This is currently the bookies favourite and would draw obvious comparison’s to Elbow’s win last year. Like The Seldom Seen Kid it’s a record that very few people outright hate and with a central section as strong as any album likely to be on the list, we certainly wouldn’t begrudge it a spot. Asuccessive win for what would be considered a safe BBC Radio Two album would, however, be a little hard to swallow from the panel.

Bat For Lashes

Bat For Lashes – Two Suns

Another previous nominee who went close in 2007 with her debut, only to lose out to Klaxons. Back with a more expansively produced top five album this year, you can almost see the Mercury sticker on the album cover already. Narrowly missing out two years back may help or hinder her for the win. A win for Bat For Lashes would also see the first female winner since Ms. Dynamite in 2002, as well as tapping into the zeitgeist of the penchant for synthy, froth-inducing ladies releasing albums over the last 12 month or so. The difference here is that Natasha Khan’s Two Suns is so much stronger than mots of the debut offerings likely to make the list.

The Horrors

The Horrors – Primary Colours

Talk of this motley crew of Hoxton Haircuts being on the 2009 list would have reduced me to hysterics up until a few months ago. While I’m not quite as gaga over their second album as some, it’s certainly something different from anything else likely to make it onto the list. And despite its much longer win-odds than artists like Doves and Bat For Lashes, it’s already been nodded to by a fair few something of a dark horse. I’m inclined to agree with that assessment.

Little Boots

Little Boots – Hands and La Roux – La Roux

Last year Adele made the list after finishing top on The BBC’s sound of 2009 – and Duffy didn’t. It was Duffy that would go on to sell more, take home a clutch of BRIT Awards and inspire a nation to shout at a Diet Coke advert. Adele quietly picked up a Grammy award this year, by way of compensation. This year it was Little Boots who had the most praise at the turn of the year, yet her album fell out of the top ten and then the top 40 in successive weeks.

La Roux

On the other hand La Roux were only denied #1 by Michael Jackson’s death and have the biggest selling debut of the year so far. Which is more likely to be on the list is hard to tell; Little Boots could do with a bigger push, but La Roux is more popular and  certainly an interesting pop star. Their albums range between the so-so to the good and really good, but that’s not going to be taken into account. Both likely to be on list, both could win, though on the other hand the panel might only go for one of them. We can’t see them both failing to make it though.

Florence and The Machine

Florence and The Machine – Lungs

Also denied a chart topper by Michael Jackson, and very fresh in the judges minds if they did get it in time. All submissions need to be with jthe udges by the start of June to allow enough time to listen, but the official cut-off is merely that the album has to have been released by July 13. The album is ambitious, a unique-sounding artist that people seem to love and loath in equal measure. Will the haters on the panel be able to shout it down, to stop it winning? We think so. But to prevent a nomination? Unlikely.

Glasvegas

Glasvegas – Glasvegas

Despite coming out way back last year, Glasvegas is eligible for this year’s nominations – and some of us smart arses were talking it up as a potential winner this time last year. That big time delay will have lost it a fair bit of momentum in terms of winning, and it wasn’t quite as good as we hoped it was going to be. It’s another album that just has the feel of a Mercury nomination about it.

Others that could make it:

Starting with albums I would like to see there personally we have the ramshackle pop-wonk of Micachu and The Shapes with Jewellery, and The Manics and Super Furry Animals with their best albums since 1996 and 2000 respectively. There might be room for Uncut/Mojo types The Phantom Band, or less likely The Invisible, The Ailens, Eugene McGuiness and The Week That Was. There may also be a space in the dance slot for Metronomy or Late of The Pier. Friendly Fires is from late last year, but certainly good enough to hold a place – it’s another album that feels like a good representation of the last 12 months of music in the UK. Fanfarlo’s Reservoir certainly wouldn’t look out of place on the list, but then again being told it wasn’t entered surprise me either.

We’d love to see Blue Roses on there, but with The Horrors and Friendly Fires having a much more likely chance it looks like XL may have put their eggs in those baskets. This might open the room for Alessi’s Ark or Emmy The Great to grab the token pop-folk nomination. On the other hand, with the potential for such a female dominated list there may just be room for Lily Allen, who in fact wasn’t nominated for Alright, Still; she’d be the biggest star at the award ceremony. This in turn might be a good thing for Sons of Noel and Adrian, Lau and the Ivor Novello award-winning The Leisure Society.

Morton Valence’s Bob and Veronica Ride Again is another record that ticks a lot of Mercury buttons but there are a lot of those this year so we are erring on inclusion. White Lies flit in our mind between really likely and not likely, and will likely vie for the NME hype slot with Glasvegas.

Out of the newer guitar acts, noises have been made about Danananananakroyd, Los Campesinos!, Sky Larkin, We Were Promised Jetpacks, Broken Records, Post War Years, Golden Silvers, Broken Records, Noah and The Whale, Slow Club and Grammatics. Second albums from The Maccabees, The Noisettes, My Latest Novel and Jack Penate are up there as well, Noisettes likely to have the most behind them. The third albums from Kasabian and Bloc Party are probably not going to be on the list though.

There’s always a slot for an older act and I’ve mulled the merits of Pet Shop Boys, Jarvis, Tony Christie and Morrissey but have decided that Madness with the excellent The Liberty of Norton Folgate are our tip for the OAP slot.

We did have it in mind that The Bug’s London Zoo would be one of the favourites, but its July 7 2008 release date is out of the time period. This leaves a rather large hole for the urban nominee which won’t go to previous nominees The Streets or Roots Manuva this time. The one on everyone’s lips is Speech Therapy by Speech Debelle, and we’re close to including it as a certainty. There could also be space for VV Brown, who just released an album in time. With Estelle being nominated last year, there certainly seems to be space for the more pop-styled R&B/Soul.

There are previous winners galore in Franz Ferdinand, Antony and The Johnsons and PJ Harvey (with John Parrish), all having released eligible albums, but we can’t see any of those capturing the judges enough in 2009 to have them return to the list.

We aren’t the people to ask about the Jazz nominee (we’ve been told Led Bib though) or a classical album if that mainstay of nomination lists past returns. Likewise the folk nod might be something that hasn’t come up on our radar yet. Our final suggestion – a slightly left-field one – is for Ambivalence Avenue by Bibio on Warp.

Muso’s Guide’s final predictions:

Doves, Bat For Lashes, The Horrors, Florence and The Machine, La Roux, Glasvegas, The Phantom Band, Madness, Led Bib, Bibio, Speech Debelle and The Leisure Society.

And half a dozen extra to cover our tracks: White Lies, Morton Valence, Noisettes, Lily Allen, Manic Street Preachers and Friendly Fires.

Girls – Hellhole Ratrace

In a nutshell this is Elvis Costello fronting Glasvegas. A mopey single that deserves no sympathetic ear.

I wonder right now if we are in the era of dress-up. Remember when you were a kid at playschool and you would throw on loads of clothes and paraphernalia from the dress up box. You might put on a Doctor’s white coat and a cowboy hat and suddenly you would become a bastardized version of John Wayne in the body of Doogie Howser. Well musicians are currently doing a similar thing, as I’ve already said this is karaoke Costello mixed with the watered down JAMC sound walls of Glasvegas. I’m not sure if influences should be this blatant, if maybe musicians are getting too lazy and instead of innovation we are seeing cut and paste interpretation.

Girls have found the heart that Tony Bennett left in San Francisco, only it is broken. This is a ballad of the working man from a band that don’t really sound like they’ve worked a hard day. “I work to eat and drink and sleep just to live / feels like I’m never getting back what I give.” ‘Hellhole Ratrace’ is a jaded lethargic effort. André Gorz was correct; the work ethic has become obsolete. Especially in songwriting.